A Look Ahead - Mining Forecast for South Africa & the Global Sector in 2025

As we move through 2025, the mining industry is navigating one of the most complex landscapes in decades. Geopolitical uncertainty, energy challenges, and shifting demand for critical minerals are reshaping how mining companies plan for the future. While risks remain high, opportunities are also emerging - especially for countries like South Africa that play a central role in global mineral supply.

Global Outlook

1. Critical Mineral Supply Pressures

The race for critical minerals - lithium, cobalt, copper, and rare earths - is intensifying. A handful of large players now dominate supply chains, raising questions about resilience and security. This concentration of power means global markets are more vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, trade restrictions, and policy shifts.

2. Uranium and the Nuclear Renaissance

With more governments turning back to nuclear as a low-carbon energy option, demand for uranium is expected to nearly double by 2040. Yet, mine output is struggling to keep pace. Without significant new investment, shortages could become a defining feature of the next decade.

3. Technology as a Stabiliser

AI, automation, and digital twins are no longer optional — they are becoming central to how mines maintain productivity, safety, and profitability. Companies that lag in adoption risk losing competitiveness in both efficiency and ESG ratings.

South Africa’s Forecast: Promise and Peril

Chrome Under PressureSouth Africa, which holds around 80% of the world’s chrome ore reserves, faces a difficult balancing act. Proposed export taxes threaten to push costs higher, while global demand remains volatile. With chrome generating more than R85 billion in exports in 2024, policy decisions will directly affect profitability and jobs.

Job Security ConcernsRecent announcements of planned retrenchments at major operations highlight the social risks. More than 2,400 jobs are at risk at Glencore’s ferrochrome and vanadium divisions, underscoring how rising costs and unreliable power supply squeeze profitability.

Opportunities in DiversificationDespite these headwinds, South Africa holds significant potential in manganese, copper, and platinum group metals (PGMs) — all critical to clean energy transitions. Investment into these areas could offer stability and position the country as a global supplier of future-focused resources.

Why It Matters

The forecast for mining is not simply about commodity prices or output figures. It’s about how companies - and entire countries - adapt to a rapidly changing environment.

For South Africa, the next few years will require:

• Policy agility, ensuring regulations do not undermine competitiveness.

• Operational efficiency, as rising input costs demand smarter ways of working.

• Market diversification, tapping into new demand for clean-energy minerals.

For suppliers, service providers, and industry partners, aligning with these shifts will be essential to remain relevant in a sector where resilience and adaptability increasingly define success.

Final Thoughts

The mining sector in 2025 is a story of contrasts: global demand rising while supply chains tighten; innovation accelerating while legacy challenges persist. For South Africa, the stakes are high, but so are the opportunities. By embracing diversification, technology, and sustainability, the industry can not only weather uncertainty but also carve out a stronger role in the global mining landscape.